2024-25 NBA Season: Top 5 Through 3 Weeks
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The NBA has only been back for about three weeks so far, but nonetheless it has already provided us with some shocking results. As with any year, many organizations have found their teams sliding up and down the pecking order of contenders for the Larry O’Brien. Analyzing key statistics and understanding the impact of key offseason additions will prove to be imperative when it comes to evaluating each team’s start to the 2024 NBA season.
Statistics such as Adjusted Offensive and Defensive ratings can give insight into which teams are excelling so far in key areas of the game. For example, the metric Adjusted Offensive rating, is the amount of points each team is expected to score per 100 possessions adjusted to strength of schedule. Conversely, Adjusted Defensive rating is how many points each team is expected to concede per 100 possessions adjusted to strength of schedule. The reason that it is appropriate to use these adjusted metrics instead of just regular Offensive and Defensive ratings is because it gives us a batter playing field for comparison between teams. The chart attached below visualizes the comparison of Adjusted Offensive rating (ORtg/A) and Adjusted Defensive rating (DRtg/A) from the 2024-25 season so far.
As the plot progresses from the left to the right, it moves from the least efficient offenses in the league to the most efficient. Conversely, this works the same way for the defense as the plot moves up. Ideally elite teams are striving to be as far in the top right as possible.
For comparison, attached below is this same exact plot for the 2023-2024 NBA Season.
We can use this graph to identify the teams that have statistically separated themselves from the rest of the competition so far. Boston, Cleveland, and Golden State created a gap between the rest of the competition on the offensive side of the floor. Denver, trailing behind these three teams just barely is extremely impressive as well, with large part of that being due to Nikola Jokic. On the other side of the floor, Oklahoma City has been the best defensive team so far this year. These 5 teams have been the most threatening contenders to me so far this season.
Teams like the New York Knicks, Dallas Mavericks, and Orlando magic are meeting the desired thresholds in some areas but have not been able to capitalize so far. It is still extremely early in the season though so these can be teams that are more than capable of making noise.
We can further vindicate this hypothesis by checking how these team ratings compare to winning percentage and adjusted margin of victory (MOV/A). Adjusted Margin of Victory considers each team’s strength of opponent, so it is advantageous to use in this scenario for comparison. Attached below is a visualization plot of MOV/A vs W/L%. Just like the other plot, contenders want to be as far in the top right as possible.
As speculated, the 5 teams that were previously mentioned are all right where they want to be on this plot so far. Although they aren’t in the elite section of this chart, Houston, Memphis, and Phoenix are all teams to keep an eye on as things start to develop. Previously mentioned you can also identify how Dallas, New York, and Orlando are right behind but not quite yet around the elite area of this chart. The NBA season is a long and treacherous grind, there is plenty of room for any of these teams to get hot and make a run.
What has allowed these 5 teams to excel so far this season?
· Cleveland Cavaliers (13-0)—The introduction of Kenny Atkinson as head coach for this basketball club has done wonders for the city of Cleveland so far. Atkinson has increased the Cavs pace of play since last year by emphasizing the importance of transition buckets. The 2024-25 Cavs average 17.4 fast break points, which ranks 7th in the NBA. Pair this along with Evan Mobley’s emergence, his increased usage rate by 5%, and a fully healthy Darius Garland the Cavs Offense has improved vastly since last year. The fact that this has been prevalent through 13 games so far is a good indication that the Cavs will be serious contenders come playoff time.
· Boston Celtics (10-3)—This is the same dominant team we saw from last year. Being the favorites in the NBA and chasing Back-to-Back rings the Celtics are going to continue to be dominant. While we have yet to see a fully healthy version of this team so far this season, they carry many of the same traits from last year as to be expected. The Celtics lead the NBA with 18.8 three pointers made per game, this is a whole 5.5 more than league average and 2.7 than the 2nd most. This team has an elite team offense and defense. On any given night Boston can shoot any team in the league out of the stadium with 3-pointers, just as they did to the Knicks on opening night.
· Golden State (9-2)—Improved team defense has been the main influence returning the Dubs back to the top 3 of the western conference. Ranked 14th last year in DRtg/A, the Warriors are now a top 5 team defense in the NBA with Draymond Green captaining that side of the floor. On offense, the key addition of Buddy Hield in the Klay Thompson role has provided a spark alongside Curry that has been lacking the last two seasons. Hield is averaging 17.6 ppg on 46.7% from three. This alongside of Curry has allowed player like Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney return to the previous form they were playing in when the Warriors made their run for the 2022 NBA championship. Having both a top 5 offense and defense, the Warriors are a team to keep an eye on out west.
· Denver Nuggets (7-3)—The success of the Denver Nuggets so far this year has boiled down to be mainly about the success of Nikola Jokic. Jokic is averaging 29.7 ppg, 13.7 rpg, and 11.7asg. If this continued, Jokic would find himself playing his way out of voters’ fatigue when it comes to the MVP as he would join Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook to be the only players to average a triple double across a full season. Jokic by far has the most offensive win shares in the NBA and he is also leading the NBA in Player Efficiency Rating. The emergence of Christian Braun in Caldwell-Pope’s starting position has certainly helped the nuggets out so far as well. Although the record might not be as impressive as the other 4 teams, make sure to keep an eye on Denver as the season continues since Jokic is well on his way to making history once again.
· Oklahoma City Thunder (10,2)—Before the injury to Chet Holmgren the Thunder were on pace to be one of the most effective team defenses in NBA history. OKC still remains the favorites to win the west and they have played three games since Holmgren’s absence and while rebounding is a clear and glaring issue, team defense has not been. That is extremely impressive, as Holmgren had been the most impactful defender in the NBA up to that point. While the Thunder have not quite hit the offensive threshold they were at last year, I still suspect this unit to be one of the more elite units in the NBA as the season goes on. The key for OKC will be if they can stay afloat in the standings in one of the deepest conferences we have ever seen. OKC will be without a true Center as Isiah Hartenstein and Jaylen Williams will be out until December. Odds are if this team can remain one of the better in the NBA until then, the addition of those two and re-addition of Chet Holmgren will restore this team to the top of the NBA come playoff time.
Teams to Watch Out For
· Houston (8-4)—This young team is looking to continue to make their development jump by skipping the play in tournament and going straight into the playoffs. This is a young vastly improved scrappy defense with a good return of offensive production from last year with Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr.
· Memphis (7-5)—This team is finally healthy and looking to make a run. After emerging as a great young team in 2023 the injury bug has been prohibiting the Grizzlies from reaching that level of sustained success again. With full health back the Grizzlys will look to reclaim their spot in the western conference.
· Phoenix (9-3)—Addition of Mike Budenholzer and Tyus jones have unlocked what everybody expected the Suns to be when fully healthy. While this team is not young like the other two teams here, they are certainly hungry for success in a stacked conference.
Record Isn’t Telling the Full Story
· Dallas (6,6)—The Mavericks have been settling into this season so far hovering around .500. Offseason moves need the adequate time to mesh and let’s not forget this team didn’t start off hot last year either.
· New York (5-6)—This team arguably had the most eventful offseason, and while the record hasn’t lived up to expectations quite yet, nobody should be ruling them out. Sometimes it just takes time for a team to gel.
· Orlando (7-6)—This team has one of the best defenses in the NBA, that was never in question. The offensive leap was underway for the Magic until Banchero’s injury. Look for this team to be in the hunt as the year continues and health restores.
The first three weeks of the NBA season has given us so much to analyze and pick apart, and this will only continue as the season progresses. Parity in the NBA is at an all-time high, it could be anybody’s guess to who will be lifting the Larry O’Brien in June. Revisiting this when the all-star break comes around will give us a clearer depiction of the top 5 contenders. For now though, these 5 teams are at the top of the list.