WILD CARD: Rams vs. Vikings. A Clash of Contradictions
The Rams and Vikings are set to face off in what promises to be a nail-biting showdown. The last time these two teams met, back in Week 8, the Rams came out on top with a 30-20 victory on Thursday Night Football. But as we approach this matchup, it’s fair to ask: will history repeat itself, or will the Vikings flip the script?
On Paper: Vikings Hold the Edge in Efficiency
Looking at the numbers, the Vikings rank an impressive 8th in Net EPA (Expected Points Added), while the Rams sit at a disappointing 21st—behind teams like the Jets and Dolphins. Not exactly flattering company. However, these numbers tell only part of the story, particularly because the Rams have undergone a defensive transformation in the latter part of the season.
The Rams Defense: A Tale of Two Halves
From Weeks 12 through 17, the Rams defense has been a revelation. They've allowed just 16 points per game, compared to a leaky 25.1 points per game earlier in the season. Most notable is their run defense, which has stiffened significantly, giving up a mere 69 rushing yards per game during that stretch. This dramatic turnaround gives the Rams a real shot at neutralizing the Vikings’ rushing attack, which has looked shaky in recent weeks.
Offensive Woes for the Rams
While the defense has found its groove, the Rams offense has stalled. From Week 15 to 17, they’ve managed just 14.7 points per game and are averaging a pedestrian 4.9 yards per play, a sharp drop from the 28.3 points per game and offensive efficiency seen between Weeks 11 and 14. The running game has been particularly anemic, producing only 3.6 yards per carry.
This should play into the Vikings’ hands, but here’s the twist: Minnesota’s run defense has been alarmingly porous recently, allowing 141 rushing yards per game at an eye-popping 5.1 yards per carry in their last two outings. This leaves the door wide open for the Rams to exploit a critical weakness.
Can the Vikings Offense Deliver?
The Vikings offense isn’t exactly inspiring confidence. Last week, they made Lions quarterback Sam Darnold look serviceable—despite his 166-yard, 41-pass performance against a depleted Detroit defense. Darnold ranks 21st in EPA/dropback, and the Vikings can’t afford to rely solely on their opponent underperforming to win this game.
This places immense pressure on the Vikings’ defense to carry the day.
The Key to Victory: Pressure Stafford
The Vikings defense leads the league in blitz rate and ranks in the top 10 in pressures and sacks, making this a fascinating matchup against Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. Here’s the wildcard: Stafford has struggled mightily when pressured this season, with his efficiency dropping off more than most quarterbacks.
However, there’s a caveat. Stafford thrives against the blitz when he can identify it early and get the ball out quickly. Against blitzes, Stafford has thrown 6 touchdowns to 1 interception with a stellar 69.1% completion rate, compared to 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions when not blitzed.
The Vikings must balance aggression with discipline—if Stafford has time to process the blitz, he can torch them, but if they get home, it could be a long day for the Rams’ offense.
The Prediction: A Game of Margins
This game feels like it could swing either way, hinging on which version of each team shows up. Will we see the Rams’ resurgent defense stifle the Vikings’ offense? Can Minnesota exploit the Rams’ declining offensive efficiency?
If Stafford plays to his potential, the Rams should have the edge. But if the Vikings’ pressure gets to him, this game could turn ugly fast.
Final Word: Take the under. Both teams have their flaws, and this has all the makings of a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair. Whatever happens, expect drama.