March Madness Bracket Analysis
Upset Analysis (5-seed difference)
Yale (13) over Texas A&M (4) in South R64
Texas A&M is the number 1 offensive rebounding team in the country (42.0%) but Yale ranks 22nd in offensive rebound rate allowed (25.8%). They can somewhat take away A&M’s biggest strength. Yale is shooting from deep at the 9th best rate in the country (38.5%) while A&M’s defensive 3P% is ranked just 154th nationally. A&M has their shots blocked offensively more often than any other team in the country, and Yale ranks 62nd in defensive block rate.
UNC (11) over Ole Miss (6) in South R64
UNC just demolished San Diego State in the First Four and have been playing coser to their potential recently. Ole Miss has been streaky this year and the analytics are pretty similar across the board for both teams. This is a momentum pick.
Akron (13) over Arizona (4) in East R64
Akron is on a 7-game win streak and have won 21 of their last 22 games. Akron shoots a lot of 3’s (52nd 3PA/FGA) and makes them at a high clip (48th 3P%) while the Arizona defense ranks 285th and 167th in those metrics respectively. If this game turns into a shootout, Arizona will lose. They rank 247th in 3P% offensively while Akron ranks 69th defensively. Arizona also ranks just 292nd in 3PA/FGA offensively. It’s not their game, and I think Akron can make them uncomfortable.
VCU (11) over BYU (6) in East R64
BYU’s 3-point attempt rate (48.3%) is 15th in the country and they are shooting 37.1% from deep (33rd). BYU relies on a heavy three point attack and efficient shooting from all levels. VCU has held opponents to shooting just 30.6% from deep (22nd). VCU also leads the country in eFG% allowed at just 44.4%. VCU holds opponents to long possessions offensively (355th/364 in average defensive possession length). Houston ranks one spot ahead of VCU, and they outscored BYU by 51 points in two matchups this year. BYU wants to play fast and shoot, but VCU is built to stop that.
McNeese (12) over Clemson (5) in Midwest R64
McNeese relies heavily on turnovers defensively, ranking 11th nationally in steal rate and 18th in turnover rate. Clemson doesn’t do a great job protecting the ball offensively, ranking 133rd and 79th respectively. Clemson typically has an advantage of holding teams to long offensive possessions, but McNeese already plays at an average pace offensively, and also use the same gameplan defensively of holding opponents to long possessions. McNeese matches Clemson’s strengths, and can take advantage of a weakness.
Kansas (7) over St. John’s (2) in West R32
St. John’s is a defensive first team with only the 65th ranked offense, which the lowest offensive of defensive ranking of a top-4 seed in the tournament. Kansas doesn’t have the best defense in the country like St. John’s but they rank 11th, which should be enough to outclass the St. Johns offense. St. John’s was unlikely to win a national title as a top-2 seed that started the season unranked, and Rick Pitino’s path ends here to another hall of fame coach.
St. Mary’s (7) over Alabama (2) in East R32
Alabama plays with the fastest pace in the country, and they almost always have under Nate Oats. St. Mary’s is the polar opposite, with a pace ranking 359th nationally. Alabama has the 4th ranked offense, but St. Mary’s has the 8th ranked defense. While Alabama relies heavily on threes offensively, St. Mary’s ranks 6th nationally in defensive 3PA/FGA. St. Mary’s is built to stop Alabama’s elite from offense.
Why Florida?
Florida passes every test used to disqualify teams from winning the championship. They have the best offense in the country and the 9th ranked defense, they were ranked inside the top-12 of the week 6 AP poll, they won the tournament of the greatest conference in the history of the sport, and they seem to have a smart, determined head coach in Todd Golden. The Gators are having one of their best years in program history, and I think it will end with them holding the trophy.