Bracket Predictions: Sleepers, Big Upsets, Final 4

For Sports fans, March Madness is some of the most exciting times for us fans. Weeks of basketball with a lot of action and surprises, some hard to predict. Those surprises are why we love watching the game. Here are some of my predictions for the winners, losers, and sleepers for this March.

In the favor of the SEC, The South:

Sleeper of the South

A lot of people have heard about Yale being a very experienced and well put together basketball team, but I think UC San Diego might be more equipped for march madness. UC San Diego knows how to capitalize off turnovers being the number one team in the nation in steals and points on steals. UC San Diego has a top 10 defense in the league, playing at a slower pace can mess up some teams. They are top 5 in steals which can give big play chances for them. Also, they are a tier 1 efficient offence being one of five teams in the tournament. Don’t be surprised if UC San Diego plays close games with Big 10 champion Michigan and then streaky Yale or Texas A&M.

Upset in the south

Michigan State gives some question marks to me going into the tournament. They came into the year with low expectations and lost some questionable games early on. Winning the regular season big 10 title but losing to a Wisconsin team, it seems like this team doesn’t win big games. Looking to face them in round two is a Marquette team that has two wins against the big 10 this year, both by double digits and both against ranked foes in Purdue and Wisconsin. Marquette looking solid in the first half of the season makes it seem like a good pick to say they will play well in March against non-Big East teams.

Winner of the South

Looking at the south bracket, we see Auburn, the number one team in the nation at the top. Watching all these teams play, I don’t think there is a team that can beat Auburn. Auburn will play every game close with their losses being to tournament teams only. They can win games by playing fast or playing at average speed, comeback in games and lead throughout games, this team is well put together. With that being said, they still have a tough section of the bracket with Louisville playing very well as of late, and then Iowa State who is a very efficient team.

Upset Alert, The East:

Sleeper in the East

Everyone is talking about Duke, Alabama, and Wisconsin in this bracket. But there are a bunch of teams in the East that can make some noise this march. Oregon is one of these teams that has some favorable matchups this march. They have an inefficient Liberty team in the first round that they should beat with ease, then they face a week Arizona team that lost 6 nonconference games including Wisconsin, who Oregon beat on the road. Then looking like, they will face Duke most likely, and without the certainty of Cooper Flagg, I can’t be certain that this is a safe win for the Blue Devils; they just aren’t the same team. Oregon, with one of the easier and favorable paths to the elite 8 could help them win the East this year.

Upset in the East

Alabama is one of the favorites in the East, especially with Duke maybe not being full strength. But I think their season could end before getting close to Duke. What I like to call the anti-Alabama could be their second-round matchup. Saint Mary’s plays extremely slowly, ranking 9th lowest in all of division 1 basketball. Compared to Alabama’s highest pace, this is going to be an interesting matchup of who can control the game. We saw Alabama struggle against non-SEC teams earlier in the season like Purdue and Oregon, who play at an average pace. Saint Mary’s is more efficient than those teams, and is slower, which gives me concern for Alabama. I think Alabama is a sweet 16 team in a lot of other situations, they just possibly got the worst pull they could’ve gotten in the tournament.

Winner of the East

This is going to be a shocker to a lot of people, but I believe Oregon has a legitimate shot to in the East. Oregon had a hot start to the year, being ranked in the Top 12 in week 6, they struggled a little in the month of January into February, but the last month of the season looked impressive. With all the question marks around Cooper Flagg’s health for duke, it makes the East wide open for any team to win. Oregon matched up with Wisconsin in Wisconsin in the regular season and won a close game in overtime, hitting 35% of their three-point attempts. They then continued to shoot very well from 3-point range for the rest of the season. If this continues into the tournament, I like Oregon to make a big run.

Anything but Mid-West

Sleeper in the Midwest

Teams that have made big final 4 runs in previous tournaments from lower seeds always come in very hot from their conference tournaments. Like NC State last year, Gonzaga is very hot. But they aren’t just hot, they are a well-rounded team that just got better as the year went on. With a shaky start to the year, they had some close games that didn’t go in their favor. But they have only gotten stronger as the season goes on, having a top 10 offense in division 1 and a top 30 defense. Playing at a fast pace like Alabama, they play a team like Houston who compares to St. Mary’s. The difference between Alabama and Gonzaga is that Alabama allows on average 13 more points than Gonzaga. Defense will be key for Gonzaga this tournament, but getting through teams like Georgia, Houston, and Purdue is very likely for this team.

Upset in the Midwest

Illinois is coming into the tournament as a high scoring team that is either a hit or miss team. They either are going to get blown out by 20 or win a game by 10 and score 100 points. They have a top 15 offense but if you were to exclude some outliers, it definitely would be a lot higher. When playing good offensive teams like Arkansas, Wisconsin, Alabama, Michigan, and Michigan State, they put up over 85 points in each. Kentucky, who they are projected to play in round 2, also has a very efficient offense and plays at a slower pace. Illinois has proven when playing elite offenses, they are tested to win shootouts. Expect a high scoring great game this weekend between these two teams with Illinois on top.

Winner of the Midwest

I think the most complete team in the Midwest must be Tennessee. They play at a slow pace going and seem to have one of the easier routes to the elite 8 in the whole bracket. UCLA has been weak recently, Utah state has not won many meaningful games, and then they get to play into Illinois weakness with a slow controlling game. Tennessee would then have to play Gonzaga or Houston in the finals and have a grind-it-out slow game where Tennessee’s experience and SEC play will carry them to the final four.

Western Showdown

Sleeper in the West

What if I told you there is a team in this bracket that beat a big 10 team, two SEC teams, two ACC teams, and played Auburn close. That team would be Memphis. Memphis has been the most dominant team in the American all season, and in nonconference play, they beat good tournament teams on the road or at home. They then went into conference play and were the most dominant in the American throughout, winning the tournament with ease. Memphis can be a team that can break a lot of brackets with Maryland and Florida being in their future.

Upset in the West

Missouri is a team that should be on your radar to beat Texas Tech in the second round. Barring Missouri getting through a slow defensive Drake team in the first round, they will get matched up against Texas Tech, a slow but high-powered offense. Texas Tech wasn’t that amazing this season with only two quality wins in conference play, and a lot of losses to all of the tournament teams. Missouri is used to playing SEC ball and is adapted to beat teams with high powered offenses, don’t be surprised if Missouri takes down a favored Texas Tech team and makes a run.

Winner of the West

St. John’s is a team that is very strong defensively with an above average offense. They play at a decently fast but not too fast. They have only lost one game in the new year, and their losses before have all been close games. They are a team that will score a lot and then play great defense, so you don’t score as well, ranked the number 1 defensive team and a top 10 team in pace for the tournament. This team knows how to win games and that’s what matters, no matter how. Even though the west is one of the top-heavier brackets, St. John’s has so many strengths, that outweigh all the other team’s strengths.

Defense Wins Championships

With all that being said, I think St. John’s is going to win this year’s march madness tournament. Combination of defense and quality wins and clutch games makes them a clear choice to knock off Auburn in the semifinals and then beat Tennessee in the Finals. Rick Pitino is an experienced coach, who has been to the final four multiple times, and this team is experienced enough to make a run. Let’s just hope there isn’t another crazy Cinderella that knocks them out this year.