Jack Blasbalg Bracket Explanation
Final Four: I have Auburn and Duke to run through their respective regions, although I have some slight reservations for Duke, as their championship hopes hinge on the health of Cooper Flagg and whether he will be 100%. The other two regions are where things get a bit messy, I have Gonzaga making it out of the Midwest and Maryland out of the West region. I think the 1 seeds in these regions are not nearly as strong as Auburn and Duke and could very well be first weekend outs.
My championship game is Auburn vs. Duke, with Auburn taking home a national championship in a high scoring affair. Both teams are elite, and this game would be a true toss up to end all toss ups. I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking Duke, but I think Auburn’s experience and being in a tougher conference will help when it comes time for the Final Four.
I think Auburn and Duke are the two best overall teams in the country, both coming in as elite teams by any metrics, while I think Maryland is much better than their 4 seed would suggest, with a top 30 offense and 6th ranked defense per KenPom. See Gonzaga below.
Sleeper Picks:
7 Kansas: This Kansas team has absolutely underachieved what we thought they would be this year, but I think they have a Sweet 16 appearance in them this year. With KenPom ranking them as the 11th best defense,look for them to take down St. John’s in a battle of dominant bigs between Zuby Ejiofor and Hunter Dickinson that will likely come down to St. John's inability to shoot the ball well.
8 Gonzaga: Probably the most underseeded team in the field by a wide margin. KenPom has them ranked at 9th overall in the country with the 9th best offense and a top 30 defense. They fit the KenPom trend for winning a national championship (every champion since 2003 except 2014 UConn has had a top 21 offense and a top 31 defense). This team is destined to bust brackets and I have them as a final four team, and wouldn’t be surprised if they made it further than that.
8 UConn: While I don’t foresee a three-peat for Danny Hurley and the Huskies, I think this team has a Sweet 16 run in store for them. UConn’s offense is still elite, ranking 14th in KenPom. UConn’s Achilles heel this season has been inside-out offenses and dominant big men like Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner and St. Johns’ Zuby Ejiofor. While Florida is a tough matchup for anyone (1 in KenPom offense, 9 in defense), I think their lack of a dominant post presence makes this a very winnable game for UConn. I think they’ll dictate the tempo of the game with their half court offense and put a stranglehold on the game. I see the run ending when they run into Maryland and dominant big man Deriq Queen.
13 Yale over 4 Texas A&M: Look for Yale to take down the Aggies in a run and gun matchup. Yale shoots the lights out from the 3 and has a 3 headed monster in John Poulakidas, Bez Mbeng, and Nick Townsend that can take over a game. Yale has the second best Field Goal percentage of anyone in the field of 64 and the best 3-point percentage in the field. I think Yale will rely heavily on the 3, and given A&M’s struggles against the 3 this season, ranking in the bottom half of the country in opponents 3 point field goal percentage, Yale has a good chance to make it to the round of 32.
12 UC San Diego to the Sweet 16: With the best turnover margin in the country and a stifling defense, look for them to exploit Michigan’s 14 turnovers per game and take down Yale in the round of 32 en route to a Sweet 16 appearance. The only reservation with this team is their lack of size. Michigan will have to dominate the interior if they want to avoid the upset.
12 Colorado State: Probably the most likely of the 12 vs. 5 matchups to result in an upset, with KenPom having Colorado State ranked ahead of their opponent Memphis. Memphis is by far the weakest 5 seed in the field and will be a quick out.
12 McNeese: This year has some very strong 12 seeds. This is a bit more of a gut feeling pick than the other two 12 seeds, but this team is definitely solid both offensively. Mcneese ranks 35 in Field goal percentage and 22 in opponent field goal percentage. KenPom doesn’t love McNeese, but I like some of their peripheral statistics and could see them making a Sweet 16 appearance.
11 Drake: The slowest paced team in the country can make a run by dictating game flow and making teams very uncomfortable. They allow the fewest points per game and have a superstar guard in Bennett Stirtz that can lead them to victory. I only have them beating Missouri in round one, but don’t be surprised if they make a Cinderella run.
11: VCU: A strong 11 seed, ranking 31 in KenPom, I have this team making the Elite 8. They rank top 50 in offensive efficiency and 25 in defensive efficiency. VCU is ranked 8th in opponent field goal percentage. VCU is a solid, well rounded team.
