The UFC Champion of Each Division at the End of 2025
The UFC is currently in a great spot and possibly the most popular it's ever been since its inception in 1993. Amongst the 8 male divisions, there are many competitive and highly skilled title fights each year, making it very interesting to look at who the possible champions may be by the end of the year. Here are my predictions:
Flyweight
Champion: Alexandre Pantoja
Darkhorse: None
Image via ufc.com
Alexandre Pantoja currently has one of the greatest legacies in the flyweight division that we’ve ever seen and is highly regarded as potentially the best flyweight ever behind all-time great Demetrious Johnson. His resume is one filled with top tier competitors, including two wins over Brandon Moreno, two wins over Brandon Royval, and wins over the likes of Manel Kape, Steve Erceg, and most recently Kai Asakura. We haven’t seen complete domination over the flyweight division like this since Demetrious Johnson left the UFC, but Pantoja’s legacy now easily rivals that of Johnson. Pantoja has virtually cleared out the entire flyweight division over his eight-year UFC career and doesn’t look to be slowing down anytime soon. His recent win over former Rizin champion Kai Asakura shows that there really may be no one left in the MMA world that can take down “The Cannibal”. His upcoming fight against Kai Kara France is likely to happen this summer, in what should be a thrilling matchup. While Kara-France is quite the formidable opponent for many flyweights, he likely won’t be much of a challenge for the current flyweight champion. Pantoja currently sits as a –240 favorite in this 125lb matchup, however I would expect him to grow to be a bigger favorite by the time we reach the fight. Pantoja is a fast paced and well-rounded fighter, with incredible cardio and toughness. His grappling is some of the most elite in the UFC, and he has shown great improvement in his striking over the course of his last few fights. If the fight stays standing, I suspect that Pantoja’s volume will be overwhelming for Kara-France, and his accuracy will be something Kai Kara hasn’t faced yet. Pantoja’s striking accuracy of 50% outshines all of Kara-France's previous opponents, as none eclipsed that 50% accuracy. Kara-France's style is effective against many other 125ers, but I believe Pantoja will be too much for the 31-year-old. After Kara-France, the path is quite unclear for Pantoja, as he truly has run through the entire flyweight division at this point. There is a chance he will eventually want to make the move up to bantamweight, however I don’t suspect that fight would happen in 2025 and rather is more likely to happen next year. Pantoja will likely defend his title one other time before the end of the year, which will probably be against Brandon Moreno or Steve Erceg. Moreno and Erceg are set to face off against one another in Mexico City on March 29th, and there’s a likely chance that the winner of that matchup could be in line for a rematch against Pantoja next. No matter which of these possible rematches occur, I would guess that Pantoja will be heavily favored in each and should be able to succeed in both matches. I believe that Alexandre Pantoja will have two more successful title defenses in 2025 and will end the year as flyweight champion once again.
Bantamweight
Champion: Merab Dvalishvilli
Darkhorse: None
Image via mmafighting.com
While many of these divisions have multiple realistic possibilities at champion by the end of 2025, I believe bantamweight is one of the only ones that has one real option. Merab Dvalishvilli only has one title defense in the UFC, however he is already being considered the bantamweight GOAT by many throughout the MMA world. Despite only winning the belt in September of last year at UFC 306, Merab has been dominating the bantamweight division ever since his first UFC win in 2018. Merab already has one of the greatest resumes we’ve seen in the bantamweight division, and he is only 34 and rapidly improving. In Merab’s last five fights, he has been able to defeat Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, Henry Cejudo, Sean O’Malley, and most recently at UFC 311 Umar Nurmagomedov. This run of dominance is truly unprecedented in such a highly skilled division as bantamweight, and it's already difficult to say who he should face next since he is destined to be a sizeable favorite over all the fighters in the top 5 at bantamweight. Despite Merab’s typically boring and grueling style, his recent win over Nurmagomedov came in a thrilling five round fight and is one the of the best bantamweight fights we’ve seen in some time. He clearly is a master strategist and has possibly the greatest cardio and conditioning we’ve seen in the sport. Merab’s pace is truly unparalleled in the bantamweight division, and we recently saw this endless pressure and seemingly infinite takedown attempts tire out and defeat Umar Nurmagomedov. Merab has a takedown average of 5.39 per 15 minutes, and he has been able to use this to dominate many opponents on the ground. Merab shot 30 takedowns against Umar, 15 against O’Malley, and 11 against Cejudo; and was able to tire out and wear down his opponent in all these fights. At the time of UFC 311, Umar was seen as the man who would finally triumph over Merab, however after his defeat at the hands of the champion it is difficult to imagine that Merab will lose his title anytime soon. He’ll most likely fight once more in 2025, and I would predict that the UFC will match him up with one of the biggest stars in the sport, former champion Sean O’Malley. Merab won his first UFC championship by unanimous decision against O’Malley back in September at UFC 306, and O’Malley declared after the loss that he’d be taking some time off until his next fight. Many may argue if a rematch for O’Malley is deserved, as there are many fights the fans would rather see such as him against Petr Yan again, or a potential title eliminator with Nurmagomedov. However, I do believe that because of his very popular image and name in the UFC, O’Malley will in fact get his rematch later this year against Merab. Despite O’Malley’s one-shot KO power and quick skillful striking, I would suspect that Merab will once again dominate O’Malley on the ground as he did with his 10 minutes of control time at UFC 306, and end 2025 as the undisputed champion in the bantamweight division.
Featherweight
Champion: Alexander Volkanovski
Darkhorse: Diego Lopes
Image via abc.net.au
Despite my choice of Volkanovski to be champion by the end of the year, there is no doubt in nearly all UFC fans minds that Ilia Topuria is the greatest featherweight in the world. After knocking out all-time greats Alex Volkanovski and Max Holloway in back-to-back fights, the 28-year-old decided that there is nothing left for him in the division and will be moving up to 155 to likely duel with Islam Makhachev in the future. This left rising contender Diego Lopes to be matched up with all-time great Alexander Volkanovski in their UFC 314 headliner for the vacant featherweight belt. This is an extremely exciting fight between two fan favorites that should be an exhilarating matchup whether it's on the feet or on the ground. Prior to his loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 298, Volkanovski had won 13 straight against fellow UFC featherweights, and had defended his title five times. Volkanovski also participated in one of the highest skilled fights in UFC history against lightweight champion Islam Makhachev back in 2023 and nearly beat him in a razor close decision. Volkanovski would make a crucial mistake of taking a rematch against the 155er just 8 months later on short notice, where he was knocked out in just 3 minutes. The unfortunate downfall of Volkanovski only worsened with his KO loss to Topuria last year, and now many question whether the 36-year-old Australian possesses the skill, or the chin that he used to in his prime. The knockout threat of Diego Lopes is no joke either, as he is one of the brightest up and coming stars in the business and has serious power complementing his chaotic style. Lopes is on a dominant 5 fight win streak, with two notable knockouts against Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff, as well as a dominating win over top contender Brian Ortega. The element of Lopes’ striking should be the most intimidating for Volkanovski, as he has a 0.75 knockdown average per 15 minutes and throws an overwhelming 73% of his strikes to the head. Volkanovski’s experience and endurance should help him greatly in this fight however, as I have noticed that one of Lopes’ biggest struggles is his gas tank, and he tends to struggle as he progresses in his fights. In each of Lopes’ last 3 fights that saw a decision, his striking to the head dropped from the first round into the second round from; 24 to 11 (vs Ortega), 16 to 6 (vs Ige), and 28 to 10 (vs Evloev). Lopes is typically able to succeed in the following third rounds, however I believe that is due to a large skill discrepancy in those Ortega and Ige fights where the loser was clearly outmatched by Lopes. In this fight against Volkanovski, I believe that over five rounds he will be able to smother Lopes and have great technical striking against the Brazilian. Volkanovski’s 6.74 significant strikes per minute is the fourth highest in featherweight history, and he has the largest significant strike differential in featherweight history of +2.96. I think this consistent volume across five rounds will be too much for Lopes, and Volkanovski will be able to cruise to a decision win or finish the fight in the championship rounds. After winning back the title, the next reasonable challenger for the Australian would likely be another young fighter in Movsar Evloev. However, despite Evloev’s skillful wrestling that led to him beating Aljamain Sterling at UFC 310, Volkanovski has fared well against skilled grapplers and wrestlers before such as Brian Ortega and Islam Makhachev. Volkanovski should be able to keep this fight standing with his 70% takedown defense and make it easy on the feet for a win against the Russian. I predict the featherweight GOAT, Alexander Volkanovski, will end 2025 as champion at 145.
Lightweight
Champion: Ilia Topuria
Darkhorse: Islam Makhachev
Image via sportsnet.ca
Back in October of 2024, Ilia Topuria cemented himself in UFC history, after scoring a third-round knockout over top featherweight contender Max Holloway. Not only did Topuria shock many by beating one of the best contenders in the UFC, this win also came after his knockout of the greatest featherweight of all time in Alexander Volkanovski back at UFC 298. By achieving these two wins last year, in my opinion he has the two greatest back-to-back wins in UFC history and is already accelerating towards being able to be one of the greatest fighters ever. Topuria has now vacated his featherweight title and is moving up to lightweight with a plan to take on and defeat the pound-for-pound #1 fighter in the UFC Islam Makhachev However, recently Makhachev stated that he wants Topuria to fight another lightweight contender before he fights for the title, meaning Topuria will likely either have to fight Charles Oliveira, Arman Tsarukyan, or Dustin Porier before his shot at his second UFC title. So, in the meantime, it is likely that since Arman Tsarukyan isn’t eligible to currently fight for the title according to Dana White, the title shot will miraculously fall to the veteran Justin Gaethje. Gaethje hasn’t had the most impressive resume as of late, as in his last two fights he got knocked out by Max Holloway at UFC 300 and earned a decision win over #11 ranked Rafael Fiziev at UFC 313. Gaethje is certainly a very solid top 5 ranked lightweight; however his best days are certainly past him, and he truly doesn’t stand a chance against Islam Makhachev. Gaethje previously lost two other lightweight title fights against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Olivera, both of whom are excellent wrestlers and grapplers just like Islam Makhachev both Nurmagomedov and Olivera were able to find Gaethje’s neck and submit him in less than a minute on the ground, and I believe Makhachev will be able to do the same when they fight. As Makhachev beats Gaethje, I also think that Ilia Topuria will pick up his first lightweight win against one of the three previously mentioned contenders and be immediately boosted into a title fight before the end of the year. The matchup between Topuria and Makhachev is one of the biggest fights the UFC can make right now, and potentially ever. I believe that in a possible bout between the two, it would be Makhachev’s biggest challenge since UFC 284 when he took on the #1 pound-for-pound fighter at the time in Alexander Volkanovski. When including the potential Gaethje fight, this would be Makhachev’s first title fight in his last 5 title defenses where he would not have a significant advantage over his opponent. At UFC 294 against Volkanovski, he luckily got the featherweight champion on short notice, having to move up a division on 11 days' notice. Against Porier at UFC 302, Makhachev had a clear wrestling and grappling advantage, and it still took him until the 5th round to submit Porier. He had an advantage in nearly every avenue of the fight at UFC 311 against Renato Moicano, and would have a massive advantage in a potential fight against Gaethje on the ground. If he gets matched up against Topuria however, he will have a certain disadvantage in the striking, and only slight advantages in both the wrestling and grappling. Topuria is one of the best boxers we’ve seen in the UFC, and his power is to be absolutely feared even by a champion like Makhachev. He was able to crack the chin of Holloway when no one else had, and his knockdown average of 1.10 per 15 minutes is incredibly impressive. Out of Makhachev’s previous title defenses, no one has eclipsed a knockdown average of above 0.63, and Topuria’s striking to the body of 17% is also a problem Makhachev hasn’t faced in a while. A weakness of Topuria in this fight however would be his wrestling, and while I do believe it isn’t bad by any means, he has shown flaws in his recent fights such as against Bryce Mitchell. Topuria poses an extremely high 93% takedown defense, and despite successfully defending 8/9 takedowns from Mitchell back at UFC 282, when he was eventually taken down, he was controlled for a concerning 1 minute and 29 seconds. Against an opponent such as Makhachev, who has a takedown accuracy of 54% compared to Mitchell’s 43%, it is a concern that if Makhachev were to takedown Topuria, he would be able to also control him on the ground. However, due to his past two major wins by knockout, I believe that all it takes for Topuria to win is one punch, no matter how good his opponent is. Over the course of a 5-round fight, I see Topuria being able to surprise Makhachev with his slick and powerful boxing, leading to a late knockout in the championship rounds, leaving Topuria as lightweight champion at the end of 2025.
Welterweight
Champion: Belal Muhammad
Darkhorse: Joaquin Buckley
Image via mmafighting.com
We saw the Leon Edwards era come to an end in the welterweight division at UFC 304 when new champion Belal Muhammad was crowned in July. Belal dominated the former champion, out landing him 192-89, and taking him down 9 times in embarrassing fashion. The new champion was expected to fight against the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmonov back at UFC 310, but he had to pull out due to injury leaving Rakhmonov to duel with Irish kickboxer Ian Garry, in which he won a close 48-47 unanimous decision. Due to Rakhmonov being injured in his fight versus Garry, Belal is now scheduled to take on Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 315 in Montreal. Della Maddalena is currently riding a 7-fight undefeated streak in the UFC and hasn’t lost a fight since 2016. Della Maddalena is known for having some of the best boxing in the welterweight division and complements his great striking with an 82% takedown defense and solid grappling. He recently defeated former title challenger Gilbert Burns at UFC 299 by brutal knockout that also earned him comeback of the year for 2024. Despite Della Maddalena’s undoubtable skill and superb boxing ability, he has yet to fight a fighter the caliber of Belal Muhammad. Belal has extremely high-level wrestling that will unquestionably challenge the young Australian, and despite Della Maddalena’s solid takedown defense of 82%, many of those defenses came against opponents who weren’t even ranked fighters in the UFC. Gilbert Burns was successfully able to take him down 7 of 11 times in their recent fight, and in his only other ranked fight before that against Kevin Holland only attempted two failed takedowns. Belal is likely to pressure Della Maddalena much more than his previous bouts, as Belal possesses a higher significant strike rate of 4.39 than both of Della Maddalena’s previous fights. Della Maddalena struggled with Gilbert Burns’ 3.17 significant strikes per minute and 38% takedown accuracy, meanwhile Belal was able to cruise to a unanimous decision versus Burns, winning on the judges' scorecards with a 50-45 and two 49-46's. The current champion should be able to stand with Della Maddalena on the feet and most likely dominate him on ground and will likely win a unanimous decision in his first title defense. After UFC 315, Belal will likely fight once more this year against the undefeated Shavkat Rakhmanov, in which I also believe he should be able to take advantage of Rakhmanov’s slower style that we saw exploited by Ian Garry in December. I think Belal’s well rounded and unique pressure style will overwhelm the undefeated opposition, and he should be able to win a close decision. The only current welterweight I could envision surprising the champion would be the 30-year-old number 6 ranked Joaquin Buckley. Buckley has proven to be a very unique and well-rounded fighter over the course of his last 6 wins, and I believe he is one of the few contenders at 170 that match up well in a fight against Belal. The only issue with Buckley is that I don’t see him fighting for the title this year. The fact that he needs one more win (likely against Kamaru Usman) before challenging for the title doesn’t set him up for a fight with Belal this year. By the end of 2025, I believe Belal Muhammad will rack up two title defenses and end the year as welterweight champion.
Middleweight
Champion: Khamzat Chimaev
Darkhorse: None
Image via forbes.com
Dricus Du Plessis was able to beat down on Sean Strickland for a second time for a unanimous decision at UFC 312 and has now racked up two title defenses of his middleweight championship that he won at UFC 297. Du Plessis has been able to shock many with his abrupt domination of the middleweight division, as prior to the second fight against Strickland, he was an underdog in his last three fights. Du Plessis is certainly a champion to be reckoned with at 185lbs, as he dominated Strickland at UFC 312 and was able to submit former champion Israel Adesanya at UFC 305. Despite the current champion's unorthodox and wild style, he poses a high significant strike rate of 6.12 per minute, and a solid striking accuracy of 49%. His striking is very variable, with 59% going to the head, 18% to the body, and 23% going to the legs of his opponents. Du Plessis is truly a nightmare matchup for anyone in the middleweight division, that is besides the undefeated and #3 ranked Khamzat Chimaev. Chimaev has been an absolute force since he came into the UFC in 2020. In many fans' opinion, Chimaev is the best wrestler currently in the UFC, and that is easily his biggest threat to any opponent, including Du Plessis. In his recent fight against #5 ranked Robert Whittaker, Chimaev shot a sprawling takedown just 14 seconds into the fight, rag dolled Whittaker for 3 minutes, and then submitted him with a rear naked choke. This performance virtually guaranteed that Chimaev would be earning the next title shot after Strickland fought at UFC 312, and the current odds for a fight between him and Du Plessis have the UAE representative as a –220 favorite. Chimaev’s wrestling is truly out of this world, and no one in the UFC has been able to stop it up to this point. In his fight against Kamaru Usman at UFC 294, despite Usman only being taken down once in his entire eight-year career before this fight, Chimaev had no problem taking him down to the ground 4 different times and scoring a dominant 10-8 in round 1. Chimaev currently holds a 4.31 takedown average per 15 minutes, and 2.77 submission average on top of that. Du Plessis has a very weak takedown defense of 50%, and despite displaying a solid ground game against Whittaker and Adesanya, I believe he will pose no threat to the undefeated Chimaev. Even if the fight stays standing at points, Chimaev’s striking accuracy of 59% should allow him to contend with Du Plessis on the feet, and once Chimaev is able to do the inevitable and take down the champion, I believe he will submit Du Plessis in either the first or second round. Due to Chimaev’s typical inactivity, this is likely to be the only middleweight championship fight this year, and Chimaev should comfortably finish the year as the new champion at 185lbs.
Light Heavyweight
Champion: Alex Pereira
Darkhorse: Magomed Ankalaev
Image via theplayoffs.news
The UFC now has a new light heavyweight champion in Magomed Ankalaev after his victory over Alex Pereira at UFC 313. The two competed to a very close decision victory, and Ankalaev was able to stifle a lot of Pereira’s biggest threats in the striking, leading to him out striking and out grappling the former champion. Pereira was a dominant three-time defending champion at 205, and was one of the biggest draws the sport had seen in a while. Now that Ankalaev is champion, one of the biggest aspects of Pereira’s title reign that will be missed is his activity, as the former champion fought an unprecedented six times in the light heavyweight division, something Ankalaev cannot lay claim to. Ankalaev only fought four times in that span, which is even a lot for the Dagestan native. Ankalaev has been known to pick and choose his fight locations in the past as well, specifically trying to fight in Abu Dhabi, which he has already made clear is where he wants his first title defense to take place. This will likely be the one title fight Ankalaev has this year, and I believe that this will be a rematch against Pereira due to the dominance of his previous reign and the close nature of their fight at UFC 313. Initially I believed that Pereira may move up to the heavyweight division to try to earn a belt in his third weight class, however the former champion recently stated on his YouTube; “I know we’ll have the rematch, we’re already in talks”. If this rematch is what Pereira truly desires and he’s confident enough to step in there again with the Dagestani, then I do believe he will in fact beat Ankalaev. The fight at UFC 313 was unlike any we’d ever seen before from Pereira, and he adapted to Ankalaev’s style well in some ways and not as well in others. On the negative side, Pereira threw only 97 strikes in comparison to Ankalaev’s 127, however the most concerning statistic has to do with the placement of these strikes from Pereira. Out of these 97 strikes, only 76 were considered significant strikes, and only 11 of these strikes landed to the head of Ankalaev. Pereira ended up throwing 63% of these 76 as leg kicks, and on top of that had another 22% which were classified as body shots. To exemplify how shocking this statistic truly is, Pereira was able to accumulate more head strikes in his three minute and 14 second fight against Jamhal hill than he did in his 25-minute bout with Ankalaev. Clearly, Pereira was threatened by Ankalaev’s wrestling ability going into this fight and may have believed that if he struck with him, he would have ended up getting taken down. However, looking at the end statistics, Pereira did impressively well defending the takedowns in this fight, as he went 12/12 when defending Ankalaev’s attempts. Another issue with this fight for Pereira was the fact that Ankalaev was not afraid of the former champion's power as many opponents typically are against the Brazilian. Pereira wasn’t able to ever land any truly powerful shots on Ankalaev, and the only time anyone ever truly got rocked in this fight was when Ankalaev clipped Pereira with a powerful left hook to right hook combo at the end of the second round. With the top tier coaching coming from Pereira’s corner via 2024 coach of the year Plinio Cruz as well as former light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira, I believe that they will prepare Pereira to successfully strike and walk down Ankalaev in their rematch. Additionally, now with the knowledge that Pereira can defend these takedowns and can take a majority of Ankalaev’s punches, I think he will be much more comfortable striking and pressuring the new champion in their rematch. With the unimpressive wrestling displayed from Ankalaev at UFC 313, I think Pereira will keep this fight standing in their rematch and will be able to land at a much better clip than he did in their first meeting. Statistically, Pereira is a much more aggressive striker of the two, as he throws 5.00 significant strikes per minute in comparison to Ankalaev’s measly 3.66. Pereira’s accuracy should also greatly favor him in this matchup, as he lands an astounding 62% of his strikes opposed to Ankalaev’s 53%. In the end, I believe that if Ankalaev and Pereira match up again by the end of the calendar year, it will be a much different story, and Pereira will end the year as champion once again at 205lbs.
Heavyweight
Champion: Tom Aspinall
Darkhorse: Jon Jones
Image via theguardian.com
Potentially one of the biggest fights in UFC history has the chance of going down in 2025. Jon Jones, the current heavyweight champion and highly regarded as the greatest fighter of all time, retained his title against Stipe Miocic in November of last year. The Jones vs Miocic fight was supposed to occur the year prior in November of 2023, but an injury to Jones led to this long delay, therefore turning the heavyweight division into the mess it is today. With Jones and Miocic no longer on UFC 295 in November of 2023, the UFC opted to put together an interim title fight between Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich. Aspinall went on to knock out Pavlovich in 1 minute and 9 seconds and then became the first fighter in history to defend his interim title, which he did at UFC 304 in July against Curtis Blaydes. Aspinall has now been off for over 7 months and is itching to get back in the octagon to claim his rightful heavyweight title against Jon Jones. It’s quite clear now that this is the fight to make in the heavyweight division, it’s just a matter of whether Jones will take the fight. Having never lost in his career, taking this fight against the young and powerful Aspinall would be the biggest risk of Jones’s career, but a win over a potential future heavyweight GOAT in Aspinall could truly cement his legacy as the greatest fighter ever. If this fight does in fact happen in 2025, it would be one of the biggest fights since UFC 229: Khabib vs McGregor. The hypothetical odds are currently very tight, with Aspinall being a current –142 favorite according to Draftkings. Prior to his fight against Miocic, many doubted whether Jones could still perform at an elite level, however after his domination of the former champ, it is pretty clear Jones still has a lot to give if he desires to. The fight itself will be a competition of whether Aspinall can land the big knockout shot on Jones, before Jones is able to take over with his “look-see-do" style. Personally, I believe Jones is just too smart to get clipped by Aspinall in this fight and will end up taking him into deep waters that Aspinall hasn’t fought in before. With the shortest average fight time in UFC history of 2:02, Aspinall has never been to the 3rd round in his career, never mind the championship rounds against an all-time great like Jones. Once Jones can adapt to Aspinall's fast paced speed and agility, Jones should be able to take over in the wrestling and wear out the current interim champ. So why do I predict Aspinall to be the champion at the end of the year? If Jones does in fact beat Aspinall, he is extremely likely to retire and ride off into the sunset undefeated and as the UFC heavyweight champion. When this more than likely happens, Aspinall will be booked once again for a fight for the vacant heavyweight championship, where I see him beating whoever the UFC matches up against him. Also, if Aspinall does pull off the win against Jones, there is no matchup I see him losing in the heavyweight division. Therefore, whether it be by beating Jones and defending the belt again by year end or winning the belt in a vacancy at the end of the year, I believe Tom Aspinall will end up as champion by the end of 2025.