2024-25 NBA Season: Tiers of the League at the All-Star Break
The NBA season has been underway for about 4 months now with a little over half of the season over by now. The All-Star break is always a good time to take a step back and re-evaluate the state of the league. Just like always, some teams have improved over the course of the year while others have gone down in flames. Using some key statistics like Adjusted Offensive rating, Adjusted Defensive rating, and Adjusted Net rating will help us make sense of how each basketball clubs stacks up to one another. These statistics quantify how good teams are on the offensive and defensive side of the floor per one hundred possessions adjusted relative to strength of schedule. These values give us amore in depth look at why teams are having success, which will let us evaluate the expectations of teams when concerning postseason play.
Net Rating is a good statistic to use when you want a baseline comparison between teams. Net Rating is equivalent to the number of points you score per one hundred possessions minus the number of points you give up per one hundred possessions. For Adjusted Net Rating these numbers are tweaked slightly to take strength of schedule in account for each team, so it leads to an even comparison. The two graphs below show how Net Rating (NRtg/A) serves as a tool for evaluating team success. In each graph you can see the linear trend that shows how NRtg/A is a good indicator of team success.
As seen in both graphs, the top three teams—Oklahome City, Boston, and Cleveland—are the clear contenders, with the best Net ratings and records in the NBA. Everybody knows at this point that these teams are legit title contenders. Boston is clear to everybody still the favorite in the east as they have the best odds to come out of the east. This makes sense even though Cleveland is playing better basketball and has a better record. Boston has the playoff experience and championship pedigree that we have yet to see from Cleveland. In the west, the Oklahoma City thunder have by far in a way separated themselves from everybody else. While just like Cleveland we have yet to see them in anything beyond the 2nd round so playoff experience might come into play later down the road. However, with such a wide margin between them and the rest of the west the Thunder are the odds-on favorite to come out of the west. To dive deeper into what these teams excel at, let’s take a sharper image of offensive and defensive rating.
This graph shows a more in depth look at what side of the ball each team excels or lacks in. The further right on the X axis a team is, is how good they are at offense, and how far up on the Y axis is representative of how good their defense is. As shown in the graph you can see the four best offensive teams are the Cavs, Celtics, Nuggets, and Knicks. While the Thunder, Rockets, Clippers, and Magic have been the best defensive teams through the first half of the season.
Why does any of this matter? Because it allows us to judge and more accurately rank these teams in tiers accurately set expectations for how the rest of the season and post season will go.
Main Contenders
As previously mentioned, these are the teams at the top of the top in the NBA and have elite aspects of their teams.
Cleveland Cavaliers (44-10) – Many people were sceptics of this teams amazing start to the season, but every team metric out there would support the fact that this is a top 3 team in the NBA. The only question with them at this point is, can they win in the Playoffs?
Boston Celtics (39-16) – Coming off an all-time championship year where the Celtics dominated the whole season in 2023-24, many people expected them to do the same in 2024-25. While they have hit somewhat of a championship slump, there is no doubt by anybody that they will be there when it matters in the playoffs.
Oklahoma City Thunder (44-10) – The Thunder have been dominant through the whole year while dealing with key injuries, most notably to their young star Chet Holmgren. It has been extremely impressive, and a large part of that is due to MVP leading candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Everybody knows that this team is elite, but elite teams lose in the playoffs all the time, only time will tell if this young team can win when the pressure is on.
Denver Nuggets (36-19) – While the record isn’t quite as good as the other teams so far, the nuggets have something that no other team in the NBA has. Nikola Jokic. Jokic may be having the greatest single offensive season of all time this year. When you have a player like that on your team, you are always going to have a chance. The key for this team is going to be how well the supporting cast can play come postseason time.
Deep Postseason Run
These are amazing teams that I think have the possibility to go on a deep playoff run, and even possibly make it to the NBA Finals, but aren’t quite in the top echelon of the NBA.
New York Knicks (36-18) – After an eventful offseason full of moves, the Knicks have a potent and explosive offense, and they can compete with anybody in the league. If the Knicks come into the playoffs with Brunson and KAT playing at the top of their games and cam maintain good team defense, then they will most definitely be a tough out.
Memphis Grizzlies (36-18) – After having multiple seasons riddled with off the court problems and injuries, the young grizzlies that we saw in 2022 take that leap are back and looking to regain some of the credibility they earned back then. This team has a good balance of offense and defense, but for them to make a deep playoff run, Ja Morant must have an excellent postseason.
Houston Rockets (34-21) – The young rockets have an elite defense which I think could be very threatening in the playoffs. However, the Rockets’ lack of shooting consistency and postseason experience is concerning. If this team can maintain okay shooting splits in the postseason, they will be an extremely annoying team to play. If they come out and cannot shoot the ball, it will be a completely different story.
Indiana Pacers (30-23) – The record is not impressive, but their record was not impressive last year either. They play with extreme pace which can wear out teams, and if they catch fire like last year, they are more than capable to go on a run.
Minnesota Timberwolves (31-25) – The T-Wolves are not nearly as good as what they were last year. That doesn’t mean that they cannot win though. Last year we saw Anthony Edwards go on a crazy playoff run through two rounds, and he’s the type of player that will give his team a chance in each game. I don’t know if they will make it back to the WCF, but I would not want to be playing them in a series.
Trade Deadline Madness
These are the teams that it is too early to categorize them since they got major additions too recently via trades.
Los Angeles Lakers (32-20) – This team is so fascinating, a team led by two elite playmakers with many athletic defensive wings that can shoot. It seems like Luka and Lebron’s dream. The only downside is they lack big men. They are going to be able to compete with anybody, but it is too early to tell if they will be able to overcome the lack of having a true center.
Golden State Warriors (28-27) – The Warriors started off the year so well and it looked like they were going to be a contender through the season. Buddy Hield’s production has fallen off and they have dealt with injuries that have derailed their season. The addition of jimmy butler could be the spark that they need to reignite the team to a deep playoff run, but it is too early to tell.
Milwaukee Bucks (29-24) – After years of lackluster playoff runs since the 2021 NBA championships, the bucks decided to finally move off Middleton. Kuzma is an interesting addition to this squad as he has championship experience from the Lakers in 2020. While Giannis is still a top 3 player in the NBA, It is unclear so far if Kuzma alone can elevate thus supporting cast to compete with the East’s best.
Play-in Teams
Teams that, at best, will be a fun first round team to watch, but at worst, will fall outside of the play in.
Detroit pistons (29-26) – Cade finally got a supporting cast good enough and the health he needed to take the leap we were all waiting for. It’s a success for this team to even be in contention for a playoff spot.
Orlando Magic (27-29 – Injuries has derailed this team after having a strong start to the year. They play elite team defense, but the offense has not been there for the Magic this year.
Atlanta Hawks (26-29) – The Hawks are fighting for their life to make the play in because they do not own their first round pick this year. To avoid giving the spurs a good pick they are going to need to finish out strong. That will be a hard task since their young star, Jalen Johnson, is out for the rest of the season.
Miami Heat (25-28) – After getting out of the jimmy butler saga this season has been for the Heat, they are looking to close the year strong behind their first-time all-star Tyler Herro. This team could be a fun first round matchup potentially, especially if we get another Heat-Celtics matchup.
Philadelphia 76ers (20-34) – Trying to hold on and get one of the play-in spots, the Sixers have had a disappointing season. Injuries have defined their season, but if they make the play in and Embiid can stay healthy, they could be a tough first round team.
Los Angeles Clippers (31-23) – In a very tough western conference, the Clippers just don’t have the fire power to stay safe from the play-in in my opinion. They are in the drivers spot of the 6 seed right now though, so only time will tell.
Dallas Mavericks (30-26) – The Mavs looked like a scary team to come against in their first game with Anthony Davis. However, the injury bug seemed to snatch AD once again. If he can come back in time to get a rhythm for the postseason, this team can make a run. Without AD this team is a scrappy 1st round exit at best.
Sacramento Kings (28-27) – The reunion of Demar Derozan and Zach Lavine will not be enough to get this team out of the play in in my opinion. At best, they maintain the 9th or 10th seed.
Phoenix Suns (26-28) – The Suns have not lived up to their expectations at all this year. They would still be an interesting team to watch in the playoffs though still if they make it in. Anytime you have Kevin Durant you will have a chance.
San Antonio Spurs (23-29) – The rapid improvement of Victor Wembanyama paired along with newly acquired DeAaron Fox has this team hoping to sneak into the play-in in the last third of the season. All of America would enjoy seeing Victor in a Win or Go Home scenario.
Capture The Flagg
Teams with no postseason aspirations anymore that should focus on improving through the draft. This upcoming draft class is highlighted by Cooper Flagg, the projected No.1 pick from Duke. Outside of Cooper Flagg, this draft class has many other possible franchise changing players, most notably Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper from Rutgers.
Trailblazers (23-32)
Utah Jazz (13-41)
New Orleans Pelicans (13-42)
Brooklyn Nets (20-34)
Toronto Raptors (17-38)
Charlotte Hornets (13-39)
Washington Wizards (9-45)
With the trade deadline just passed, the league is in a state of reassessment. These tiers are bound to shift, just as the standings will over the last 30 games of the season. Every year, some teams catch fire after the trade deadline and surge into the playoffs, much like the Mavericks of last year. However, for every success story there are also disappointments—similarly to how teams like the Bucks and Suns had their seasons end on a sour note. Only time will tell what teams will rise to the occasion and compete for the label of NBA champion in June. One thing is certain, the playoff race and postseason are shaping up to be the ultimate test of championship pedigree and resilience.