Why Louisville Will Shock the Country & Duke Will Silence Any Doubters
Champion: Duke
The 1-seeded Duke has finished the year atop both the AP poll and the KenPom rankings and has very high adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings of 3rd and 4th respectively. They are one of the 8 teams in the trapezoid of excellence, and specifically in the last 10 games of the year they are far and above the best team in the trapezoid. They impressively won the ACC tournament without star freshman Cooper Flagg as well as Maliq Brown, and freshman forward Kon Knueppel stepped up to average 21 points and win tournament MVP. All the statistics and metrics truly point to Duke being the most dominant team in the country and being certain frontrunners for National Champions. Led by freshman Cooper Flagg and fellow lottery pick favorites Khaman Maluach and Kon Knueppel, Duke has the talent to take on any team they face on their path to a championship. A fully healthy Duke team should be able to confidently defeat any team they face in the East, and their wins against highly ranked opposition such as 1-seeded Auburn, 4-seeded Arizona, and 6-seeded Illinois show that they are legit even in a weak conference like the ACC. I think come tournament time Duke will be ready to show the country why they are statistically the best team in this bracket, and they’ll bring everything they’ve got to win their first tournament since 2015.
Final Four: Duke, Houston, Louisville, Florida
Duke (1 Seed)
I am confident that Duke is the best team in the nation this year, and this in fact is one of the greatest Duke teams we’ve ever seen in the tournament. I already addressed the many strengths of the team and the countless signs pointing to their future success; however, I didn’t address the road to the final four for the blue devils. Their first game against either American or Mt. St Mary’s as a 16-seed will be a breeze, and my projected round of 32 matchup against Baylor should be a walk in the park against such a poorly rated defense. Their first possible test will come against 5-seeded Oregon in the sweet 16, and Oregon is known for typically turning it up come tournament time. However, they’re ranked quite poorly on KenPom at 31st and have had a very up and down season with many tough losing streaks throughout. While this Oregon team may be built for March, they are not built to take on the force that is 1-seeded Duke. This leaves Duke with an elite 8 matchup against the incredibly hot 6-seed in BYU, who have absolutely turned it up come the end of the season. They lost in the Big 12 tournament to a terrific Houston team but are 10-1 since February 8th and have some great wins to their name as well. Despite BYU’s recent success, Duke ranks 4th in ADE as previously mentioned and has consistently played some of the best defense throughout the country this season. If they can hold back this high-powered BYU offense just as Houston did recently, I believe Duke’s incredible offense and star-studded roster will take over and lead them to the final four.
Houston (1 Seed)
Behind the powerhouse that is Duke, Houston may just be the most well rounded and trustworthy team in the tournament. They’re possibly the hottest team in the country losing only one game since November, and they excelled in the Big 12 tournament destroying everyone they faced. They are ranked second in the nation in ADE and have a big and physical defensive scheme that is menacing for any opposition. They’re ranked 10th in AOE according to KenPom and are statistically the best 3-point shooting team in this tournament with a percentage of nearly 40%. Their first difficult matchup will in fact come in the round of 32 against a severely under seeded Gonzaga team, but despite the bulldog’s skill I don’t think their defense stands a chance against this amazing Houston offense. Gonzaga’s biggest strength is their talent and firepower on the offensive side of the ball, but when you’re going up against the second-best defense in the country it is going to be nearly impossible for any offense to get going. After that they should honestly have a cake walk of a game against 5-seeded Clemson and their subpar offense, and Clemson’s inexperience in a terrible ACC conference will be no match for Houston who has constantly played in big games throughout the year. Finishing off their final four run against a 2-seeded Tennessee game will really test their offense as Tennessee has the third best defense in the country, however I am confident in siding with the Cougars in this low scoring defensive affair.
Louisville (8 Seed)
Louisville has an incredibly tough path to the final four, having to face the likes of a very talented 9-seed in Creighton, and an elite 1-seeded Auburn. After that they have to go on to face a 5-seed and 2-seed in Michigan and Michigan State respectively, neither being an easy game by any means. However, there truly is something about these cardinals that make me believe they can do it. I give a lot of the reasoning for this in the “sleepers” section below, so all I’ll say is don’t be surprised when you see this 8 seed in San Antonio.
Florida (1 Seed)
Florida has the best offense in the nation by far and it really isn’t up for much debate. They have the best adjusted offensive efficiency rating according to KenPom, have one of the highest scoring offenses we’ve seen in this tournament in some time, and also downright dominated their way to a tournament win in the best conference that is the SEC. Florida has wins over the best seeded teams they’ve faced such as Auburn, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and notable wins in the SEC tournament against Missouri, Alabama, and once again Tennessee. They’re an incredibly hot team recently despite some injuries in crucial games, and they have one of the best players in the tournament in Walter Clayton who is sure to show up come Friday. With a fully healthy lineup including Alijah Martin, they should thrive in the tournament and begin by easily dismantling Norfolk State in the round of 64. They’ll likely face the defending champs in UConn in the round of 32, but there's no reason for them to be on upset watch due to UConn's very poor defense. I have them moving on to face the incredibly talented Maryland Terrapins after that, however any hopes of Derick Queen potentially bringing this team to an elite 8 will be crushed once they face off against a team that they haven’t seen the likes of all season in Florida. I have Florida’s offense leading them to an elite 8 win over a subpar defensive team in Texas Tech, however even if they play the best rated defense in the country in St John’s in that game I think that they’ll still be able to score more than St John’s 65th ranked offense. I think it really should be an easy road to the final four for this legendary Florida team, and I see them having great success in this year's tournament.
Sleepers: Louisville, Texas
Louisville (8 Seed)
Louisville triumphed in the ACC this year and succeeded late into the year having only one loss following their defeat at the hands of 3-seeded Kentucky way back on December 14th. Louisville ended the year as #10 in the AP poll, and despite a ranking of #23 on KenPom, they still rank 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency and an impressive 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their first-round matchup in Creighton ranks 34th in AOE, and 42nd in ADE, and I believe Louisville’s experienced senior play can lead them to a win over the Bluejays in the round of 64. I have them shockingly upsetting 1-seeded Auburn after their victory on Thursday, as Auburn's late season woes are certainly something to be concerned about. Their overwhelming loss to Texas A&M’s 44th AOE rated team was quite concerning, especially considering they shot fantastically from the field yet managed to lose by 11. Their loss to Tennessee made me wonder if Auburn may just struggle against terrific defensive teams (like A&M and Tennessee), however Alabama has an ADE rating of 32nd on KenPom and yet Auburn still lost that high scoring affair against the Crimson Tide. Auburn was outrebounded by 8 in both the Tennessee and Alabama games and got smothered on the glass by Texas A&M when they were outrebounded by 16. Even in their blowout of 3-seeded Kentucky at the end of the year, Auburn still got outrebounded by 19, so clearly this is a prevalent issue in their game. Louisville on the other hand outrebounded every team they played in the ACC tournament including 1-seeded Duke, and they haven’t been outrebounded by more than 8 since that loss on December 14th to Kentucky. The 1-seed's must be knocked out in this tournament one way or another, and I think Louisville is a prime candidate to take down the Tigers and then beat a much lesser team in Michigan in the sweet sixteen. I then have the Cardinals going up against Michigan State in the elite eight, in another game where I think their offense will be able to simply outscore MSU’s. While MSU and Louisville’s AOE rating on KenPom are in fact close at 27th and 29th respectively, I believe the big gap between the two offenses is the three point shooting, which we have seen to be so important come March every single year. Both teams aren’t fantastic by any means when it comes to shooting beyond the arc, and Louisville's 238th 3-point percentage ranking across the country would be a concerning metric if you didn’t factor in MSU’s abysmal 325th national ranking. MSU has only made 197 three pointers in comparison to Louisville’s 320, and Louisville clearly isn’t afraid to shoot the three ball either, as they have 970 3FGA compared to MSU’s 640 3FGA. Because of this distinct advantage beyond the arc, and perhaps a bit of magic in the air, I have Louisville traveling to San Antonio and being in this year’s final four.
Texas (11-Seed)
Texas played in the best conference this year by far in the SEC and ended up getting in as a first four team, scheduled to take on a solid Xavier team Wednesday night. As strange as it is, I think that this first game against Xavier will actually be a bigger test than a round of 64 matchup versus Illinois. Xavier stands as -2.5 favorites in this first four game and should be quite a tough test for this Texas team that has picked up some big wins recently. They took down 4-seeded Texas A&M in the SEC tournament, and earlier in the month took down Mississippi State along with a 3-seeded Kentucky team back in February. The two possible 11-seeds are right next to each other in KenPom, with Xavier at 43rd and Texas at 44th. Texas has a very talented roster to go along with their 37th ranked AOE and were able to catch fire in the SEC tournament which I am banking on translating into their game on Wednesday night. If they can take down Xavier, I believe they will face a good matchup in the underwhelming 6-seeded Illinois. Illinois has a very solid offense that provided them some crucial wins throughout the year, however they have lacked a defensive identity at times and shown that they aren’t one of the more athletic teams in the tournament. I think if Texas can take the momentum from their first four game and continue to have great offensive output, they can take down the Fighting Illini and face a surprisingly favorable matchup against Kentucky in the round of 32. Kentucky is one of those teams that is seemingly known for choking come March, and their past losses to double-digit teams in the tournament such as 14-seeded Oakland and 15-seeded St. Peters provide for severe doubt in this 3-seed. Texas was able to take them down back on February 15th in a very even game, and ideally Texas can take what they learned and succeeded in during that game and apply it in a tournament setting. Of course, this time it will be a much harder go around for the Longhorns, and I could see this talented Kentucky team overtaking past year woes and defeating the 11-seed. However, if I were to choose any 11-seed this year to make it to the sweet 16, when they typically do in the history of the tournament, I would favor Texas to do so.