Who's Gonna Win the Masters? My Five Picks for 2025 🌸⛳
The azaleas are blooming, the green jacket is pressed, and Augusta National is ready — it’s Masters week. But before we get swept up in the roars echoing through Amen Corner, let’s talk picks. Who’s actually got a real shot at winning this thing?
To figure that out, I dug into the trends and traits shared by recent champions. Here’s what the last 10 green jacket winners had in common:
Experience matters: Only three players have ever won the Masters on their first try. Seven of the last ten had already posted a top-5 finish at Augusta before winning, and all ten had at least one top-40 result.
Current form is key: Every winner since 2015 had a top-15 finish on the PGA or DP World Tour in the same calendar year.
Major momentum: Each of the last ten winners had a top-15 finish in a major the previous year.
Stat check: Recent winners weren’t just solid — they were gaining serious strokes:
+0.60 SG off the tee
+0.84 SG on approach
+0.54 SG around the green
Four of the last five were gaining +2.50 strokes or more per round
So, with all that in mind — here are my five picks to win the 2025 Masters:
🇪🇸🏆 Jon Rahm (Odds +1600)
It almost feels like cheating to pick Rahm, but he’s built for Augusta. Already a Masters champ (2023), he’s back in form and dominating LIV, finishing top 10 in every 2025 event so far and leading the league in birdies. According to DataGolf, he’s still comfortably a top-five player in the world.
He also finished top 10 in the most recent Open Championship, and while his 2024 Masters performance was underwhelming, regression to the mean suggests a big bounce-back. Don’t be surprised if he makes another serious run — at the very least, pencil him in for a top 10.
🇬🇧 Rory McIlroy (Odds +650)
Yes, we’ve said this for over a decade… but hear me out. Rory is trending at exactly the right time. His current form? Arguably top three of his entire career. As of today, he ranks 1st in Strokes Gained overall and Strokes Gained off the tee — elite territory.
After the U.S. Open stumble, he made some subtle swing tweaks, and since then, he's been lights out. He’s fresh off a win at The Players (aka the “fifth major”) — maybe he pulls a Scottie Scheffler and doubles up.
This will be Rory’s 17th start at Augusta. Coincidence or not, it took Sergio Garcia 17 tries to get his green jacket too. The stars might finally be aligning.
🇮🇪 Shane Lowry (Odds +4000)
Lowry may fly under the radar, but his game is tailor-made for Augusta. His touch around the greens is elite, and when his putter heats up, he plays like a world-beater. He nearly repeated his Open Championship magic in last year’s British Open before cooling off.
He’s been steady with multiple top-15 finishes on tour this season and has shown he can hang with the best at Augusta in recent years. He’s a grinder — don’t count him out on Sunday.
🏴 Robert MacIntyre (Odds +5000)
This one’s more of a gut call. Rob Mac has the scrappy, left-handed game that can thrive at Augusta — just ask Bubba and Phil, who’ve combined for five green jackets in the last 20 years.
He’s coming in with momentum: top-12 finishes at The Players and Arnold Palmer Invitational, plus an 8th at the 2024 PGA Championship. If he keeps trending with the irons, he could be this year’s breakout — think Danny Willett 2.0.
🇺🇸 Russell Henley (Odds +5000)
Every year, a Georgia native seems to catch fire at Augusta. Enter Russell Henley. Born in Macon, UGA alum, and now a quiet killer on tour. He’s climbed to No. 7 in the world and recently won the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Statistically, he’s peaking: elite irons, world-class putting, and the type of ball-striking consistency Augusta rewards. Americans have won six of the last 10 Masters — Henley could make it seven.
🎯 Honorable Mentions
Scottie Scheffler – An obvious contender, but only three players have ever gone back-to-back at the Masters — two of them were Nicklaus and Tiger.
Ludvig Åberg – A heartbreaker to leave off. After last year’s runner-up finish, he looked poised — but two straight missed cuts at the Valero and The Players raises red flags.
Collin Morikawa – Always a threat with the irons, but he’ll need a lights-out putting week to be in serious contention.
Final Thoughts
Picking a Masters winner is like trying to read Augusta’s greens — beautiful, but brutal. Still, history gives us a blueprint: look for players in form, with experience, and numbers that suit Augusta’s demands.
My top pick? It’s tough to go against Jon Rahm. But if you’re looking for a hometown shocker, Russell Henley could write the Georgia fairytale. Let’s see who earns that Sunday stroll in Butler Cabin.