Trade Deadline Madness: Luka Doncic vs Anthony Davis

Is this the craziest trade of all time?

It’s difficult to come up with fair comparisons for other sports.

Ronald Acuña for Bryce Harper?

Josh Allen for 2022 Aaron Rodgers?

The Lakers receive Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber, and Markieff Morris, and give up Anthony Davis, Max Christie, and a first round draft pick to the Mavericks. The Jazz acquired Jalen Hood-Schifino and two second round picks.   

Two superstars of this caliber rarely get traded for one another, and the details surrounding the trade make it feel even weirder. 

No players on either team were aware the discussions were going on? Lebron James has become notorious for having a say in the Lakers front office's moves, and even he was not informed of the trade until it already happened. It was leaked at almost 1 in the morning? Many basketball fans woke up and one of the biggest moves of all time may have been the first news they saw. 

The Mavericks feared signing Luka to an even bigger contract and were apparently not fans of his defense and work ethic. That being said, I think it was a no-brainer for the Lakers when the Mavs approached with a proposal to give up Doncic. 

When moments like this happen, sports fans love to discuss which teams won the trade, why it happened, and what the teams will look like going forward. How will the new players fit in with their new teammates and schemes? What value do each of the players really have?

I thought it would be interesting to take a deep look into the two biggest players involved in the trade: Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis. While they are at different stages in their careers, they have both cemented themselves as some of the best players in the league. 

Doncic is averaging 28.6 PPG, 8.3 AST, and 8.7 RBS during his 6-year career. His PPG average is the highest career average for a player at the time he was traded since Kareem in 1975. Luka has put himself on a clear path to the Hall of Fame, and if not for Nikola Jokic, he would surely be a multiple-time MVP. 

Anthony Davis has also put together an impressive career, averaging 24.2 PPG, 10.7 RBS, 2.5 AST, and 2.3 BLK. At his peak as the number-one option with the Pelicans, he was close to a guaranteed 30 and 12 each night. He won a ring with the Lakers in 2020 and has finished top 5 in DPOY voting 4 times. 

In 2023-2024, both players were healthy and put together great seasons. Many fans look at a number like Lukas's 33.9 PPG (Wow) and assume that he is clearly a greater asset than Anthony Davis.

What do some advanced statistics have to say about their performance last season?

2 important stats to measure a player's impact on the floor are Usage % and Player Impact Estimate(PIE). 

Usage percentage measures the percentage of a team’s possessions that a player uses while on the court. It takes into account field goal attempts, turnovers, and free throws. 

Luka ranked first in USG % by almost 3 percent at 35.5. His consistency at about 36% the last few seasons puts him with some of the most used players of all time. Anthony Davis’ number was 26.1%, and he ranked 17th in the NBA in ‘23-24.

Another all-around statistic is PIE, which measures a player's overall contribution to the game. Almost every statistic in the box score is used to calculate the stat. It is similar to PER but includes more defensive statistics. 

During the 23-24 season, Luka was 2nd in the league in PIE, only behind Nikola Jokic. Davis was 6th in this stat, proving that he is still one of the most impactful players in the association. 

Some offensive stats to consider are listed above: Offensive Rating, Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG), and True Shooting Percentage (TS). 

Luka was again impressive offensively as he was 8th in the league in offensive rating at 119.6 Anthony Davis was not too far behind at 116.5 and #20 in the league. It is important to consider that both offensive and defensive ratings rely heavily on the rest of the team and players on the court, so it would be necessary to look at more numbers to form the full picture. 

Davis and Luka graded very similarly in effective field goal percentage. This stat takes into account the fact that 3 point shots are more valuable than 2s. It provides a more accurate picture of an offensive player's efficiency, and Luka just beat AD in this category. 

Next, let’s look at TS%, which combines free throws with other field goal attempts to give a more accurate depiction of an offensive player’s efficiency. 

Both players are elite offensive players, but in different ways. Luka had a high TS% (61.7%), despite his high usage percentage and shot creation responsibilities. This suggests he's not just scoring efficiently but doing so while carrying a big offensive load. AD's efficiency (62.1%) shows his success as a finisher and inside scorer, making the most of his opportunities rather than being the primary creator. 

A player with as diverse a shot chart as Luka having a TS% that high is very impressive, as there were not many other guards amongst the top of the league in this category. 

Last, let’s look at these stats: Win Shares, Defensive Win Shares (DWS), Value Over Replacement Player (VORP, basically a basketball version of WAR in baseball), Box Plus-Minus (BPM), and Net Rating. 

Win Shares attempts to divy up credit for team success to the individual players on the team. It is calculated using player, team and league-wide statistics and the sum of player win shares on a given team will be roughly equal to that team’s win total for the season.

Both players excelled in this statistic, with Luka finishing slightly ahead at 12, AD with 11.8. One interesting thing to note when looking at this stat is Davis’ lead ahead of his teammate, Lebron James. I think this points to Anthony Davis being a more valuable player than many think. 

AD had the clear advantage in Defensive Win Shares, as most would expect. He finished T3 in the NBA with 4.7 DWS, only behind the DPOY Rudy Gobert and Nikola Jokic. Luka came in at #18 with 3.5. 

Speaking of defense, it’s worth mentioning that Luka and AD had the same DBPM (Defensive Box Plus-Minus), which is another advanced statistic commonly used to grade defense. Overall, it is very difficult to accurately measure a player's defense, as so much relies on the other players on the court. 

I don’t think it would be outrageous to say that our eyes are serviceable measures of a players defensive ability. Anyone watching last year’s finals could see that Luka was a clear liability on that end of the floor. 

Getting back to advanced analytics, both players were near the top of the league in VORP. This stat estimates how many points per 100 possessions that a player contributes above a replacement-level player. Similar to WAR in baseball, it is one of the most valuable overall stats out there.

Luka again proved to be second best to Jokic, finishing with an 8.0 rating. Anthony Davis showed great strength in this statistic as well, landing at #9 in the league with 4.9 VORP. This is another indicator of Luka’s high usage percentage impacting other numbers used to measure his success. 

Doncic’s biggest advantage comes in the BPM. Box Plus-Minus uses a player's box score data to estimate their overall contribution to the team when they are on the court, again pointing at a high usage percentage giving him an advantage. 

Anthony Davis totaled a 5.1 BPM, and Luka almost doubled that with a 9.9. I think this stat shows Luka’s overall offensive ability, especially considering his passing ability. As I mentioned before, if the Nuggets didn’t have one of the best players of all time, Luka certainly would’ve won MVP in 2024 and possibly multiple before then. (Jokic blew everyone out of the water with a 13.2 BPM) 

Finally, let's examine Net Rating. NETRTG measures a player's overall impact on the game by calculating the point differential per 100 possessions when they are on the court. Again, Offensive, and especially Defensive Rating, are difficult to judge for one player because they rely heavily on the impact of the other players on the court. 

Neither player was as proficient in this category, but Luka still possessed a significant advantage over AD. Luka had a 5.8 NETRTG, and Anthony Davis finished with a 2.6. 

All of the stats are from NBA Advanced Stats, and only include players with more than 60 GP and in the top 50 players in USG %. 

Conclusion: who wins and loses?

Due to Luka’s absence on the court as of late, I feel like many people are underestimating his importance as the 2nd best player in the NBA. His ‘23-24 season was incredible, and he impacted the game more than anyone else (except Jokic of course). His failures on defense in the playoffs, and especially The Finals, were grossly apparent, but that does not mean that he won’t put the Lakers in a position to win. 

In a similar way, I feel as though many are undervaluing Anthony Davis and his recent success. When (or if) he is healthy, he has proven to be one of the best bigs in the league, being a guaranteed 25, 10, and 2 blocks every night. You could cite his struggles with injuries, but apart from those 2 ½ seasons with the Lakers, he’s been a pretty consistent 60 or so games a season. 

Considering some other parts of the trade, I still lean towards the Lakers as the overall winner. You got a backup center in Maxi Kleber, nothing special but they’ll certainly take it. The Mavericks get a first round pick from the Lakers, but who knows if that potential player bridges the gap between Luka and AD. Max Christie is a solid role player, and I don’t suspect that Markieff Morris will be making much of an impact. 

Numbers clearly aren’t perfect, and many of these stats in some way shape and form are influenced by the other players on the court. It’s hard to predict how their numbers will change on their respective teams, and what impact they’ll have, but both teams are still solidly in a position to contend in the western conference.